When linesmakers post their numbers on football games, they not only put up the pointspread but also a total. Most bettors pass on the opportunity to take advantage of a winning play on totals but I’m going to let you in a few secrets from a professional. I’m going to talk about a few basics to determine whether to play ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ a particular total.
The first factor to look at is defense. Defense wins championships but it’s also the main key to determining how many points are scored in a game. Sportswriters love to use the phrase, “This team plays great defense.” Ask ten different football fans what great defense is and you’ll get several different answers. The proverbial “bend but don’t break” defense is always one to consider when looking to play under the posted total. This type of defense generally allows opposing offenses to gain yards and sustain drives but tighten up and make the opposition punt or hold them to a field goal. Opportunistic defenses on the other hand can create points by returning fumbles or interceptions for touchdowns or by forcing turnovers to give their offense a short field. Everyone remembers the 46 defense of the Chicago Bears who were as likely to score themselves as allow a score to the other team. This type of defense generally leads to games going over. The key to using defense when handicapping totals is to determine what type of defense both teams play.
The second factor is offense. Pass happy offenses that throw the ball all over the field generally score several points per game. Another thing that happens with this type of offense is that the clock stops which allows more plays to be ran. Obviously, the more plays ran in a game allows more chances to score. Teams that run the football predominantly generally cause bettors to immediately lean to the under. In the NFL, this is a nice starting point to handicap the total. College football totals can be a completely different animal. Some running attacks in the college game are capable of big plays at any time. The Oklahoma and Nebraska running attacks of the past were known for scoring big points without throwing the football more than 7 or 8 times per game. The important thing to find out is what kind of offense both teams are going to employ.
The third factor is weather. Football is played in the fall and winter where rain and snow can happen at any time. Rain and snow can make the field slick and create bad footing. The average bettor assumes that these conditions automatically look to bet under the total. In most cases that assumption is probably correct but remember this when players are sliding around the field, the offensive player knows where he is going but the defender does not. Refer back to the big play offenses that I mentioned earlier and even on less than ideal field conditions the offense may have a huge advantage. The most underrated weather condition when it comes to totals is wind. Passing teams can be ineffective when heading into the wind. That means for half the game that team’s offense may not be able to move the ball except on the ground. At times, the wind can be so strong that both teams may be unable to throw the ball. If both teams feature passing as the focal point of their offense, having to run the ball usually leads to an under.
In conclusion, betting totals are a great opportunity for bettors. All you have to do is find two pass happy offenses going against two opportunistic defenses in ideal weather conditions and play the over. Seriously, put in the time to identify what each team does best and determine how that matches up against their opponent. Using the factors I described above you’re on the way to becoming a winning totals bettor. You can also take advantage of Cary Bonnell and CBWins.com vast knowledge and historical database. Let himm do the homework for you then sit back, enjoy the game and cash your winning tickets.
