NFL Preseason – A Bettor’s Guide

NFL training camps are getting started and that means preseason games will be happening soon.  On August 8th the Cowboys and Bengals play in the Hall of Fame Game and gives bettors the first wagering opportunity of the season.  Many of you will say, “I don’t bet on preseason games, they don’t really count.”  I have one question to those who agree with the previous statement.  Is the money won in preseason less green than money won in the regular season?  Of course not and just like the regular season te way to win is finding weak lines and taking advantage.  Many factors need to be studied to find those advantages and I am going to share two of the biggest ones in order to help.

Coaching – Unlike regular season games, not every coach is interested in winning preseason games.  The disinterested coaches are generally veterans who have job security with a team that has a recent history of success.  The opposite is a first year head coach or a coach on the proverbial hot seat.  These coaches want to win any game just to alleviate some pressure from fans and the media.

Another way the preseason is completely different from the regular season is how open coaches will be about the gameplan for the upcoming week.  By spending enough time perusing local newspapers and different websites it is possible to find out starter’s playing time as well as specific things the coaching staff wants to work on and assess.  Knowing both team’s plans can obviously be a huge key in deciding on which team to bet.

Quarterbacks – The most important position in any NFL game is the quarterback, no matter what time of year the game is played.  The key to preseason QB assessment though is depth, not just the starter.  A teams that has three or four experienced signal callers immediately goes on the list of possible “play on” candidates.  Some teams may have a veteran field general and he is backed up a second year player and two rookies.  If those two teams play each other the team with experienced QB’s has the upper hand before the game even kicks off.

Preseason games tend to have spreads at 3 or somewhere close.  If you do your homework on gameplans and quarterbacks the edge can be in favor of the player rather than the linesmaker.  If you don’t have the time to put in the work and find those edges, join Cary at CBWins.com and let his years of experience and success put more money in your pocket.  Build a bankroll before the regular season starts and make this the most profitable football season ever.

Handicapping The NCAA Tournament

Now that postseason basketball has arrived the masses will be out in full force wagering on games.  Those public opinions can change the way we look at the contests but a few tried and true rules still apply.  I’m going to show you three of the key factors to apply when handicapping NCAA Tournament play.

Experience: This seems to be an obvious one but it can be overlooked when you start breaking down a game.  It’s not just having upperclassmen on the roster.  Experience means older players who have competed in big games, especially if that experience came in previous NCAA Tournaments.  Nerves can come into play on the national stage and being able to overcome those nerves is necessary to do well in the dance.

Guards: Guards have the ball in their hands more than the frontcourt players and therefore it is of utmost importance for them to protect the ball.  Turnovers will get a team beat (and cost bettors money) in any game and turnovers are magnified in March.  When handicapping games look for teams with a good Assist/Turnover ratio.  This will help identify who has good guard play.  It also helps when a team’s guards also fill the first topic discussed, experience.  Experienced guards who value the basketball are always a good way to go when wagering in the postseason.

Coaching: There is a reason very few coaches have won national championships or even reach the Final Four.  It takes a special style to navigate through a one and done style of tournament.  The coaches ability really shows in the Saturday/Sunday games more than the Thursday/Friday games.  The short turnaround means preparation time is shortened and good coaches can communicate the gameplan in a timely manner.  Leaders with success in previous tournaments are normally able to replicate those results.

Those are just three of the main points to use when handicapping in the postseason.  There are many more factors to use when deciding who is going to cover in all the March tournaments.  Do your homework and dig deep to find the winners.  If you don’t have the time, join Cary Bonnell and the CBWins.com team and enjoy a great March.  Remember, “Don’t Gamble When You Can Invest.”

Who’s In?

March is quickly approaching and that means the buzz is starting about who is in and who still needs to win some more games in order to be included in the NCAA tournament.  Not only does this make for great water cooler talk, it also can be used as a handicapping tool.  The pressure of making the tournament can weigh heavily on coaching staffs and players alike.  Some rise to the occasion while other crack under the stress.  Here is a breakdown of the power conferences with who I consider locks to make the dance and those who need some more wins to qualify.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

Work Left: Virginia, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Baylor

Work Left: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette

Work Left: Cincinnati, South Florida, Connecticut

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois

Work Left: Minnesota, Northwestern

PAC 10

Locks: None

Work Left: Everyone

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida

Work Left: Mississippi, Mississippi State

You may notice the defending champs, North Carolina, are nowhere to be found on my list and that no one from the PAC 10 is listed.  Perennial March Madness participants like the Tar Heels, UCLA, Arizona and even Memphis out of C-USA probably won’t be dancing this season.  That means there could be at-large bids for quality teams out of the mid-major conferences like Northern Iowa, Wichita State, St. Mary’s and even two Ivy League competitors in Cornell and Harvard.

When handicapping a game involving the “Work Left” teams look for veteran coaches that know how to get teams to the NCAA tournament.  These coaches understand how to manage important games and get their teams playing well late in the season.

Enjoy the rest of conference play and get geared up for March.

Football Totals Can Be Profitable

When linesmakers post their numbers on football games, they not only put up the pointspread but also a total.  Most bettors pass on the opportunity to take advantage of a winning play on totals but I’m going to let you in a few secrets from a professional.   I’m going to talk about a few basics to determine whether to play ‘Over’ or ‘Under’ a particular total.

The first factor to look at is defense.  Defense wins championships but it’s also the main key to determining how many points are scored in a game.  Sportswriters love to use the phrase, “This team plays great defense.”  Ask ten different football fans what great defense is and you’ll get several different answers.  The proverbial “bend but don’t break” defense is always one to consider when looking to play under the posted total.  This type of defense generally allows opposing offenses to gain yards and sustain drives but tighten up and make the opposition punt or hold them to a field goal.  Opportunistic defenses on the other hand can create points by returning fumbles or interceptions for touchdowns or by forcing turnovers to give their offense a short field.  Everyone remembers the 46 defense of the Chicago Bears who were as likely to score themselves as allow a score to the other team.  This type of defense generally leads to games going over.  The key to using defense when handicapping totals is to determine what type of defense both teams play.

The second factor is offense.  Pass happy offenses that throw the ball all over the field generally score several points per game.  Another thing that happens with this type of offense is that the clock stops which allows more plays to be ran.  Obviously, the more plays ran in a game allows more chances to score.  Teams that run the football predominantly generally cause bettors to immediately lean to the under.  In the NFL, this is a nice starting point to handicap the total.   College football totals can be a completely different animal.  Some running attacks in the college game are capable of big plays at any time.  The Oklahoma and Nebraska running attacks of the past were known for scoring big points without throwing the football more than 7 or 8 times per game.  The important thing to find out is what kind of offense both teams are going to employ.

The third factor is weather.  Football is played in the fall and winter where rain and snow can happen at any time.  Rain and snow can make the field slick and create bad footing.  The average bettor assumes that these conditions automatically look to bet under the total.  In most cases that assumption is probably correct but remember this when players are sliding around the field, the offensive player knows where he is going but the defender does not.  Refer back to the big play offenses that I mentioned earlier and even on less than ideal field conditions the offense may have a huge advantage.  The most underrated weather condition when it comes to totals is wind.  Passing teams can be ineffective when heading into the wind.  That means for half the game that team’s offense may not be able to move the ball except on the ground.  At times, the wind can be so strong that both teams may be unable to throw the ball.  If both teams feature passing as the focal point of their offense, having to run the ball usually leads to an under.

In conclusion, betting totals are a great opportunity for bettors.  All you have to do is find two pass happy offenses going against two opportunistic defenses in ideal weather conditions and play the over.  Seriously, put in the time to identify what each team does best and determine how that matches up against their opponent.  Using the factors I described above you’re on the way to becoming a winning totals bettor.  You can also take advantage of Cary Bonnell and CBWins.com vast knowledge and historical database. Let himm do the homework for you then sit back, enjoy the game and cash your winning tickets.

Coaches On A Different Kind Of Hot Seat

Every day in every sport there is a story about a coach on the verge of losing his job due to his team’s poor performance,  AKA “The Hot Seat.”  There are certain jobs that a coach starts on the hot seat before ever coaching a game.  The manager of the Yankees, head basketball coach at Kentucky and whoever is coaching the Cowboys for Jerry Jones feel the pressure before, during and after each season.  That’s the pressure every sports fan knows about.

There is a different kind of hot seat for a select few college football coaches in the country.  Their jobs are not in jeopardy and there is no way an athletic director would fire them without something terrible happening.  The pressure these coaches feel is one that most fans never consider, it’s the pressure to cover spreads while playing the cupcake portion of the schedule.  Boosters not only give big money to schools but they also do some wagering and they expect the home team to beat the big spread against the weak opponent scheduled for the purpose of getting an easy win.

Here’s a look at a few of the coaches willing to run up the score on an inferior opponent.

Urban Meyer – Since he’s been at Florida the Gators have been money early in the season against lesser opposition.  If there was any doubt about Meyer wanting to cover that was erased last season when he sent in his special teams unit to kick a meaningless field goal at the end of the Miami game.  There is a reason that linesmakers have made Florida a 73 point favorite in Week 1 against Charleston Southern.  It might finally be a number Urban can’t get to but I wouldn’t bet against it for anything.

Jim Tressel – Don’t let the sweater vest and tie lull you into thinking he is Mr. Nice Guy.  Given the opportunity to crush an opponent the Buckeyes will shift into another gear and blow away the competition.  Remember Cincinnati in 2006?  The Ohio State University was winning by 27 points as time was expiring.  The problem was the Buckeyes were 29 point favorites.  Tressel called timeout, sent out his field goal unit and won by 30 to get the cover.  His reasoning after the game?  “I just wanted to get our kicker some game experience.”  Sure he did!

Bob Stoops – It’s obvious that Stoops learned about how to be successful as OU head coach from Barry Switzer.  Barry hasn’t bought a meal in Oklahoma during his tenure or since because he made boosters a lot of money by hanging big numbers on the scoreboard.  The new coach does the same and that’s why you don’t see many spreads less than 20 for the Sooners.  It’s never wise to bet against Oklahoma just because the spread is big because scoring points without a conscience is the norm in Norman.

There you have the “Big Three” who like to cover the number no matter how large.  Don’t blindly wager on these coaches but it’s not smart to go against them early in the season either.  Let Cary Bonnell at www.CBWins.com guide you through this upcoming college football season with his analysis and information.

New NFL Coaches In The Preseason

It’s human nature, when you start a new job you want to make a good first impression.  NFL coaches are no different but unlike a normal job they won’t get fired for screwing up in the first four weeks.  Because of this each new coach is in a unique situation.  We will take a look at the coaches heading up a new team and how that may translate to pointspread winners in the preseason.

Eric Mangini (Browns) – Mangini takes over a team that was 4-12 last season and he will bring more emotion than the human statue that is Romeo Crennel.  Mangini was 8-4 in the preseason as head coach of the Jets during his tenure.  A change in attitude was needed in Cleveland and the new head coach will bring that change.  Look for a successful run in the preseason this year.

Josh McDaniels (Broncos) – It would be difficult to imagine a new head coach having a tougher summer leading up to his first season.  McDaniels alienated his Pro Bowl quarterback who then forced a trade and his best wide receiver showed up to camp only to avoid being fined.  Combine that with taking over for Mike Shanahan who was and is loved in Denver and the situation keeps getting more brutal.  McDaniels needs to win and win early to build confidence from his team and fans.  Denver should be a force this preseason.

Jim Schwartz (Lions) – Talk about an organization that needs a culture change.  The Lions need wins this preseason and they need them bad.  Schwartz comes from Tennessee where the Titans have a history of being very good in the preseason under Jeff Fisher.  Schwartz also brings a no-nonsense style and the Lions will realize early in camp that times have changed.  Detroit will have success in the preseason because Schwartz will stress the importance of wins.

Jim Caldwell (Colts) – Caldwell has been the coach in waiting for a while in Indianapolis.  The transition from Tony Dungy will be fairly seamless.  Because of that expect another poor showing in the preseason from the Colts.  Dungy could care less about the games that don’t count and Caldwell will continue that system.

Todd Haley (Chiefs) – Haley takes over a team that was 2-14 last season but played several close games.  His GM went out and got him a Pro Bowl quarterback in Matt Cassel.  Haley is an offensive coach and with a new QB leading the youngest offense in the league the starters will play more than usual in the preseason.  Because of this the Chiefs are a “play on” team in the preseason.

Rex Ryan (Jets) – Ryan was the architect of the successful Ravens defense and now takes over the entire Jets team.  He may have to show his defensive genius with all the young quarterbacks on the roster.  First pick Matt Sanchez and Kellen Clemens are expected to compete for the starting job.  With little experience behind center the Jets should struggle in the preseason.

Tom Cable (Raiders) – I realize Cable coached 12 games last season but this will be his first camp as the head coach.  Why anyone would want the job is beyond me.  This team needs to change it’s motto to, “Just try not to lose bad, baby.”  Another long season is getting ready to start in Oakland and the preseason will not be pretty either.

Steve Spagnuolo (Rams) – Talk about a franchise that needed a change.  The Rams were 5-27 the last two years and hiring a defensive coordinator was a good move since St. Louis gave up almost 5 yards per rushing attempt last season.  Spagnuolo worked under Tom Coughlin and has learned how to coach and be successful.  Wins in the preseason could go a long way toward an improved season.  The Rams should be profitable during this year’s preseason.

Mike Singletary (49ers) – Like Tom Cable, Singletary coached 9 games for San Francisco last season but leads his team to training camp for the first time.  If you have any doubts about Singletary’s commitment to winning and doing things the right way, ask Vernon Davis how he liked being sent to the lockerroom in the middle of a game when the coach didn’t like his effort.  Singletary defines intensity and wants to win each and every time there is a game on the schedule.  The 49ers are another “play on” team this preseason.

Jim Mora, Jr (Seahawks) – Injuries hit the Seahawks hard last season and because of that Mora takes over a 4-12 team.  The key to this preseason for Seattle will be to get to the regular season with his starters healthy.  Mora had a so-so 8-5 record in the preseason in his previous stint as a head coach and under Mike Holmgren was barely over .500 during his tenure.  That win some, lose some attitude will more than likely continue this year.

Raheem Morris (Buccaneers) – After Jon Gruden was suddenly fired after last season, the Buccaneers turned to Morris to lead them through what will be a rebuilding process.  Young and hungry coaches tend to do well in the preseason though because to them a win is a win.  Tampa Bay was a preseason monster under Gruden going 30-16.  Morris should continue that preseason trend and I’m playing on them.

There you have it, lots of new coaches and several different circumstances.  Remember that the preseason is very fluid and things change from week to week.  Do your homework before wagering on any game and if you need more help join the CBWins team and you will build that bankroll for the regular season.

Be A Winner By Betting Baseball Totals

During a summer of baseball we have almost 4900 opportunities to choose the winning side. That’s 30 teams playing 162 games each. What most bettors fail to take advantage of is that also means there are almost 4900 opportunities to cash winning tickets by playing the totals in these games. Here are some tools to use when determining the outcome of the total scores.

First and foremost is pitching. The old baseball adage remains true today, “Good pitching beats good hitting.” Translating that into betting totals, “Good pitching keeps the other team from scoring runs and lead to unders.” Linesmakers use several different aspects to set the totals but the main factors are the starting pitchers for each team. You can pick up a newspaper and or log on multiple websites and find out what each pitcher’s ERA is for the year and use that as a baseline to try and determine how many runs will be scored. But this is where Mark Twain’s quote “There are three kinds of lies – lies, damn lies and statistics” comes into play. In today’s game starting pitchers rarely go the entire game and therefore how they pitch on influences part of the game. Bettors must also study how each team’s bullpen performs. Again, these stats can be misleading because in our ESPN highlight world the only relievers that get publicity are closers. Middle relief is an important phase of the game because in most cases these pitchers account for about 9 outs per game. Doing your homework about middle relievers can offer a decided edge for totals bettors.

Another factor for totals is the home plate umpire. The person calling balls and strikes has more control over a game than any other official in sports. An umpire who calls the high strike or one who always gives the outside corner a couple of extra inches changes how pitchers approach getting hitters out and thusly influences the final score. These factors are usually not discernable to the average fan and most don’t even know the name of the person calling the game. One thing that is important to point out is whether an umpire has more games go over or under it is not an indication of being good or bad. It only indicates one thing, and it is a very important item handicappers look for, consistency. Most umpire’s strike zones do not change. They don’t change from game to game or even year to year. This is why following umpires can be a huge advantage when determining the total score.

The third factor that influences total is the stadium where the game is played. In basketball the rim is always 10 feet high and in football the field is always 100 yards long but each Major League stadium is different. Totals in most stadiums will be set between 8 and 10 based on the first two factors I mentioned, mostly based on starting pitching. One stadium that stands out for totals is Wrigley Field and that is because of the strength of the wind. In fact, most sportsbooks won’t post a total on Cubs home games until the day of the contest so they can check the weather report. One important thing about Wrigley Field, the wind blows in about as much as it blows out so don’t think you can blindly play the over and be successful at the end of the year. Another thing to keep in mind about stadiums is the amount of foul territory. Some fields have seats that don’t allow much extra space outside the white lines while others have expansive foul ground. Balls the would be in the stands in one stadium may be caught for an out in others. Obviously, the quicker a team can record 27 outs the less chance the other team has to score.

So remember, there are multiple opportunities to take advantage of winning totals during a baseball season. Doing you research on pitchers, both starters and relievers, home plate umpires and stadiums can make you a winner. Or better yet, take advantage of Cary Bonnell and CBWins.com vast knowledge and historical database. Let them do the homework for you then sit back, enjoy the game and cash your winning tickets.